Jim McGuinness has had Mickey Harte's number in the past
In football, as in any sport, victory and defeat are decided on the knife edge of chance.
Donegal manager Jim McGuinness has applied himself more than anyone else in the game to blunting that threshold.
As manager, he takes total and personal responsibility, with an awareness that the nature of the opposition is crucially important to the composition of his own team.
He applies the principle that success is overridingly important, and that attractiveness is incidental. He seems not to give players positional titles, he gives them jobs.
He seems to have, in his mind, a picture of his team in movement, not of names on a sheet of paper.
With McGuinness, individual ability is only relevant when it is connected collectively. But there are also players that he clearly regards as central to his ambition because talent and character is fused in them.
So how much for McGuinness’ reliance on controlled method given the well-documented changeability in players’ form?
He is aware that football is not mathematics, and no manager can eliminate chance. He can only protect himself against its ill effects to his utmost ability.
He does not watch football with his heart in his mouth. He watches individual players, dispassionate for their success or failure, noting their advantages and their weaknesses, his mind endlessly searching for the ideal blend.
There is a coolness in McGuinness' view of football, it looks like the deliberate consideration of a man who lives by it and must retain his judgement at all costs.
All of those positive qualities played a significant role in a young and seriously depleted Donegal team going to Croke Park on Sunday and beating favourites Armagh to bring the Division 2 league title back to Donegal.
Many of this young side were cutting their teeth at HQ for the very first time, which can be an intimidating experience.
But the character in evidence was most impressive and Donegal were in no way flattered by their one-point winning margin.
No doubt, there will be a detailed analysis as to how his team went 20 second-half minutes without a score because, with a four-point lead entering the last quarter, the winners seemed to be home and hosed.
To their credit, when Donegal went one point behind in the 68th minute, it looked like the horse had bolted but the character shown by Caolan McGonagle, Oisin Gallen and Aron Doherty in scoring three great points, was commendable and ensured that the better team prevailed.
This victory was fashioned by the collective philosophy of management and players that hard work and unremitting dedication make every goal attainable.
While it was a special achievement to win promotion and finish the league campaign unbeaten, the big plus for Donegal fans is the fact that a number of young players have made the transition to county football under the new management, while some of the more established squad are playing better than ever.
Ciaran Moore and Mark Curran are no longer boys of brilliant promise, they are playing superb football.
Oisin Gallen is now one of the game’s top forwards and Ciaran Thompson is playing as if he was wearing the blue of his club - he is playing the best county football of his career.
Management’s decision to locate big McGonagle at centre back was an inspired decision and his point in the 70th minute of the Armagh game was a thing of beauty.
Donegal's record in Croke Park over the years was less than impressive and the performance against Armagh was one of much merit.
Yes, Derry were most impressive in beating Dublin in a game of compulsive viewing. But we have three weeks to prepare for what will be a formidable task in playing the Ulster and Division 1 league champions in their own backyard.
But for now, let the Donegal squad enjoy what to date has been a wonderful year of football. A week really is a long time in politics and in football. But April 20, I simply cannot wait for it to come around.
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