The gruelling count in the Ireland South constituency was continuing on Wednesday, with political staff not hopeful that another candidate would reach the quota.
Fine Gael’s Sean Kelly was elected on the first count on Monday night, leaving 22 candidates vying for four seats in the 10-county constituency.
In the 13 counts that have taken place since then, 13 candidates have been eliminated.
Fianna Fail’s Billy Kelleher, who was just over 20,000 votes shy of the quota after the first count, has gained around 8,000 transfers.
After Mr Kelleher’s 99,000-odd votes, next is Independent TD Michael McNamara.
Outgoing MEP Mick Wallace edged ahead of Fianna Fail’s Cynthia Ni Mhurchu after the transfer of Aontu candidiate Patrick Murphy’s votes, but Ms Ni Mhurchu went around 700 votes ahead after the 13th count.
Sinn Fein TD Kathleen Funchion, on 55,600 and the Green Party’s Grace O’Sullivan on 54,621 are also in the running.
The transfer of Paul Gavan’s 25,521 votes, Ms Funchion’s running mate who was eliminated on the 13th count on Wednesday afternoon, are expected to be crucial.
The process of transferring votes between the South’s candidates, as per Ireland’s proportional representation, has taken longer than had been estimated by observers at Nemo Rangers GAA Club in Cork.
While a first count was called at 10pm on the first day of counting in the 2019 European elections, the first count results took 24 hours longer to announce this year.
The 2019 poll also saw a lengthy recount take place for days, after just over 300 votes separated Sinn Fein’s incumbent MEP Liadh Ni Riada and Ms O’Sullivan, a former Greenpeace activist.
Asked if the prospect of another taxing recount is looming over the count staff in the Cork sports hall, and whether that is extending proceedings, returning officer Martin Harvey told the PA news agency: “We’re always meticulous, recount or not.”
He said the ballot papers are very long, which makes sorting them more difficult, but added that the counters have “got to grips with that by now and they’re moving through it much quicker”.
“I don’t think any of these counters would even think about the recount situation, honestly. We’d always do a very, very thorough search and check.
“Every paper is checked and double-checked, every single cards that are completed with 50 votes are signed by two people and then checked by supervisors.
“That is the procedure we have used in general elections, in referenda, and this election previously and now.
“We are extremely careful. And the previous recount showed that, when we went to do the recount, it showed there was no real change in the situation after part of the recount and then they decided to call it off.”
Deirdre Clune, who was the last MEP to be elected to the Ireland South constituency in 2019, said she does not have the “knot in my stomach that you would have normally when you’re in this position”.
She added: “You can’t tell how these transfers are going to go. That seems to be the common theme from every political camp you speak to – nobody knows, there is no pattern at all. It’s not geography, it’s not female, it doesn’t even seem to be party political or whether you’re right wing or left leaning.
“So it’s very difficult to predict how these last seats will go.
“There could be a pocket of votes there, a surprise 10,000 votes for somebody, a 5,000 that they weren’t expecting that would push them ahead of another, so anybody who thinks they can predict this, I think, they’re trying to fool us, because you can’t. There is no way of predicting it.”
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