Will Peter Casey top the poll in Donegal if he runs in a general election?

In the wake of coming second to Michael D. Higgins in the presidential race, earning 23 per cent of the vote, Peter Casey said he was going to join Fianna Fáil.
He went further, telling Miriam O'Callaghan he wanted to run in Donegal and if he did, he would top the poll.
Ms O'Callaghan went back to him later in the interview to check with him, but early morning readers would have seen a version of that story emblazoned up top in the Sunday Independent, so he was deadly serious.
So, since Sunday, the story in Donegal and elsewhere is simple enough, how would Peter Casey do if he does in fact run.
He may have to do so as an independent, but he's not keen on that route, he thinks it a waste of time, but Fianna Fáil made it clear on ‘The Week in Politics’ on Sunday, that they were ‘grand, thanks’, we have our two candidates - that was not how Niall Collins put it, but you got the gist.
Since then a more considered response has been oferred by Fianna Fáil, but there's still no room for Peter.
So, let's assume he's running on his lonesome in Donegal, how would he do?
Figures from the 2016 general election will help give us some indication of where Casey might place.There were 16 candidates chasing five seats, seven of those 16 were independents; the star turn was Fianna Fáil’s Charlie McConalogue who topped the poll and was elected on the first count with 17.1% of the vote, 12,533 votes, about 300 over the quota.His party colleague, the veteran Pat ‘the Cope’ Gallagher picked up 13.9% of the vote and was elected on the 11th count, Fianna Fáil took 31% of the vote.

Fine Gael’s Joe McHugh was also elected on the 11th count - 11.5% of the vote.

Pearse Doherty was elected on the 8th count, with 14.1% of the vote while the final seat was taken by Thomas Pringle, the Independent, on the 13th count.
Sinn Fein’s three candidates enjoyed 27.5% of the vote but only elected one candidate. This was seen as a major error by them, and the likelihood that Casey will be in the running next time, has to exercise their thinking/strategy - same too for Fianna Fáil.
From this remove, bearing in mind that the sages tell us roughly 60 per cent of your vote is picked up in the area you are local to, it seems obvious that Inishowen will be the battle ground where Casey could do most damage.
Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil in Inishowen (Pádraig MacLochlainn and Charlie McConalogue) took almost 25% of the first preference votes between them and while not all of these votes were won in Inishowen, a substantial number of them were from that part of the county.
If Casey runs, he too will pick up a huge share of Inishowen votes, but by his very nature, he will pick up votes all over the place.
Thomas Pringle, an independent, the 5th TD elected last time on the 13th count, may come under pressure from a high profile candidate like Casey running as an independent, are there enough votes for two independents?
Pringle however, has said he thinks, should Casey run, he will be taking votes from Inishowen candidates in the main and from Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin, in particular.
When I suggested 'well you would say that' he replied: “I don't think he will get elected at my expense, I think Charlie McConalogue and Pádraig MacLochlainn are the people who will lose votes to him in a more substantial way.”
One must also bear in mind that Pro-life candidate Tim Jackson, who finished seventh last time, will also attract ‘independent’ votes if he runs, and my sense is that he will.

Timing of the general election will be critical, were it to happen in the next two months or less, unlikely with Brexit looming, Casey would in my view get elected here. Regardless of timing, should he run, Donegal's love for a 'maverick' could well see him in the Dáil.